Tropical Storm Hermine Update

Synopsis: A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL STALL AND REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY. TROPICAL STORM HERMINE LIFTS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC STATES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE WATERS LATE MONDAY.

 

TROPICAL STORM HERMINE LOCAL STATEMENT ADVISORY NUMBER 20

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA

510 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016

 

TROPICAL STORM IMPACTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS

NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA…SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA…AND THE LOWER

EASTERN SHORE OF MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA

 

NEW INFORMATION

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* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

– NONE

 

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

– A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND WORCESTER…MARYLAND

BEACHES…PASQUOTANK…CAMDEN…WESTERN CURRITUCK…BERTIE…CHOWAN…

PERQUIMANS…EASTERN CURRITUCK…NORTHUMBERLAND…LANCASTER…GLOUCESTER…

MIDDLESEX…MATHEWS…SURRY…JAMES CITY…ISLE OF WIGHT…

NORFOLK/PORTSMOUTH…SUFFOLK…CHESAPEAKE…VIRGINIA BEACH…ACCOMACK…

NORTHAMPTON…YORK…NEWPORT NEWS AND HAMPTON/POQUOSON

 

* STORM INFORMATION:

– ABOUT 710 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OCEAN CITY MD OR ABOUT 590 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF NORFOLK VA

– 30.8N 83.6W

– STORM INTENSITY 70 MPH

– MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

 

SITUATION OVERVIEW

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HERMINE MADE LANDFALL NEAR ST. MARKS FLORIDA, EARLY THIS MORNING

WITH WINDS NEAR 80 MPH. THE STORM HAS WEAKENED BACK TO TROPICAL

STORM STATUS THIS MORNING…AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS

THE SYSTEM CHURNS NORTHEAST TODAY…AND ACROSS THE COASTAL

CAROLINAS TONIGHT.

 

 

IMPACTS FROM HERMINE OVER OUR AREA COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF HEAVY RAINFALL. IMPACTS FROM WIND…HIGH WAVES AND SURF…AND COASTAL FLOODING COULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT…WITH IMPACTS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HERMINE MOVES OFFSHORE AND SLOWS DOWN.

 

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM HERMINE WILL LIKELY INCLUDE POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING…WITH BETWEEN 4 TO LOCALLY 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE TIDEWATER AREA. IN ADDITION…MODERATE TO NEAR MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND…WITH STORM SURGE VALUES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL POSSIBLE.

 

WIND GUSTS OF BETWEEN 45 AND 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHESAPEAKE BAY…THE ATLANTIC COAST…AND COASTAL WATERS OF MARYLAND…VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH MAY AFFECT AREAS AS FAR WEST AS RICHMOND. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE HIGH SURF…WHILE ALSO ALLOWING FOR BEACH EROSION AS WELL AS DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

 

 

Today NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 ft with a dominant period of 11 seconds.

 

Tonight Tropical storm conditions possible. NE winds 15 to 20 kt… Becoming E 20 to 25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt after midnight. Seas 4 ft with a dominant period of 11 seconds… Building to 7 ft with a dominant period of 11 seconds after midnight. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the evening…then showers likely after midnight.

 

Sat Tropical storm conditions possible. NE winds 30 to 35 kt with gusts to around 45 kt. Seas 11 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds… Building to 14 ft with a dominant period of 12 seconds in the afternoon. A slight chance of tstms. Showers until late afternoon… Then showers likely late.

 

Sat Night Tropical storm conditions possible. N winds 35 to 40 kt with gusts to around 50 kt. Seas 15 to 16 ft with a dominant period of 12 seconds. Showers likely.

  

Today Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. North wind 7 to 11 mph.

 

Tonight Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. East wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

 

Saturday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 77. Northeast wind 26 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Saturday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 65. North wind 24 to 29 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

 

Sunday Tropical storm conditions possible. Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

 

Sunday Night Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

 

Labor Day Tropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

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